Showing posts with label computer science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label computer science. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Measuring science

This post was inspired by an excellent one by GrrlScientist, linked from the title above. She starts off discussing journal impact factors, which are a measure of the average number of times a paper in a journal is cited by others. Then there's what is essentially a personal impact factor, which is the number of times a particular researcher's papers are cited. These have problems, which the H-index is meant to address. Briefly, a person has an H-index of h if he or she has at least h papers cited at least h times. So, if I have 100 papers, each cited once, then I have an H-index of 1. If 99 are cited once and one is cited 43,000 times, my H-index is still 1. If 95 are cited once and the remaining 5 are each cited at least 5 times, then I have an H-index of 5. And so on.

So, first of all, there is the question of gaming the system. It's unlikely that I can convince 43,000 of my colleagues to cite one of my papers (but, if you'd like, pick one from my CV on my UW home page and cite away). But if I'm only shooting for, say, an H-factor of 20 or so, then that might be doable. Supposedly, people do try to game the system by doing things like citation swapping, though this seems to me to represent time better spend being a more productive researcher (rather than just trying to look more productive or impactful).

Though I may be unconvinced about the effects of such gaming, I see this as a fatal flaw of any attempt to extract a simple metric from the interrelationships among such publications. Just look at how much effort Google has expended on providing good search results. Since these results are presented in a sequence, presumably from most relevant (or "best") to least, they have been implicitly assigned a single measure. And there's a cottage industry surrounding pushing sites' ratings up that has nothing to do with their content. I'll come back to this idea of creating a one-dimensional ordering later.

To me, there's another problem with metrics such as this. Let's say that my H-index is 11, as computed using Google Scholar. Furthermore, let's assume that issues such as self-cites (citing one's own work) and co-cites (citing of one's work by collaborators; I'll revisit this topic, too) don't effect rankings (these may be invalid assumptions). There's still one problem: is an H-index of 11 good? Bad? Middling? If we read Wikipedia, we learn, "In physics, a moderately productive scientist should have an h equal to the number of years of service while biomedical scientists tend to have higher values."

But what about computer scientists? We could consult a listing like the CS Meta H index. We would then have to compare my H-index with other faculty at similar stages in their careers who are working at similar institutions and who have had roughly similar career paths. Unfortunately, that information isn't in the index. We need to know a lot about different universities, different CS departments, and individual faculty. Maybe it would just be easier to read one or two of my papers and judge for yourself.

Coming back to the subject of co-cites, this could be considered a sign of an attempt to game the system. On the other hand, it would make more sense for me to make gaming arrangements with colleagues with whom I have no direct professional connection. (Hmm. Three more strategically placed citations will get me to an H-index of 12; five more in just the right spots will get me to 13.) But what about people who collaborate widely? Their papers will have lots of co-cites, but their work will also be more broadly influential because of all that collaboration. So, when I've prepared materials for external review, I always separate out the co-cites. Make of them what you will.

The desire to create this scalar (one-dimensional) metric of scholarly is a natural one. When I look at the complex dynamical behavior of a neural network, one of the first things I want to do is extract a single measure to characterize that behavior, so that I can then more easily examine how behavior depends on various parameters. But I have a very carefully defined question in mind when I do this. When we measure science, what is our question? Are we asking if a particular scientist is "good"? What is good? Does it mean that the scientist's work has impact in the field? How can we really ascertain this without understanding the field and the scientist's contributions in that context?

Einstein had four papers that changed the field of physics forever. But that's just an H-index of 4. I was discussing this with one of my colleagues, however, and his opinion was that 4 was a reasonable assessment of Einstein, and that we should want to hire and promote scientists who are consistently productive, not ones who have one brilliant flash of insight and then nothing approaching that for the rest of their lives. But how can we tell the difference between consistent, quality productivity and a laser-like focus on getting out each least publishable unit? To me, the only solution is knowing the person; we can't reduce the behavior of that large a neural network to a single useful measure.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

More evidence that CS enrollment decline is ending

As I wrote in my previous post, I see CS enrollment up sharply this fall. Here's the first news article I've seen on this subject. Note that it tries to make it seem that UMBC (Univ. Of MD, Baltimore County) is bucking the national trend, but the comparison made is between fall 2007 and fall 2006. We will see more stories like this as fall approaches.

Friday, July 20, 2007

Improvements in CS enrollment coming

As the linked article shows, new enrollment in CS continued its decline last fall, but just barely. Degrees granted, of course, lags the new enrollment trend by at least four years. Anecdotally, I see enrollments trending sharply up this comming fall, which is just what would be expected from previous patterns in engineering enrollment.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Cause and effect

Some articles in the latest round of debate over the future of the computing profession:

Which is cause and which is effect? Decreasing numbers of students interested in computing? Unpleasant working conditions, compared to other professions, many of which having less onerous coursework? Increasing immigration and outsourcing preventing salaries from increasing? Likely, this involves at least one feedback loop; I am concerned that the feedback will make matters worse, not better.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Women and the computing profession

The title above links to yet another article, this time from The New York Times, on the decreasing number of women entering the profession. If you've been reading articles like this, you'll likely detect the slow evolution of the message to include more assertions that demand for graduates is much higher than is perceived. All of the hard data I've seen supports the assertion that demand for computer professionals is higher now than at the peak of the dot-com boom.

One curious item, on page two, is the note that the University of Washington, Seattle "never had a programming requirement." Perhaps what was meant was for freshman admission? Because the introductory CS sequence, 142 and 143 (and the equivalent courses for transfer students) are pretty typical intro to programming classes.

Update: Here's a link the UW Seattle CSE department's "Why Choose CSE?" web site mentioned in the article.

Monday, March 05, 2007

Gee, Officer Krupke...

Computer Science is misunderstood. See the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette article linked from the title. Is it really the case that all we need to do is win the hearts and minds of parents? Whatever happened to teen rebelliousness?

Friday, February 23, 2007

More on the trouble with CS education

The title links to a Stanford press release in which Prof. Eric Roberts indicates that the problem underlying the current decline in CS enrollment lies with CS education. I agree with this: introductory CS classes, for instance, are probably the most in-your-face, student-unfriendly courses at a university. The article goes on, however, to say:

Universities also struggle with attracting enough computer science educators. 'In the '80s boom, there was one year in which there was one applicant for every seven open [teaching] positions, which means that six of the positions just did not get filled,' says Roberts. Today, there are more applicants than openings, but the ratio—hovering at around two to one—still stands in stark contrast to that in most humanities departments, where hundreds of applicants compete for one faculty job opening.

'I used to argue that Ph.D.s in computer science probably lowered your salary, because they opened lower paying jobs [in academia],' Roberts half jokes. 'There's an economic incentive not to teach but to go off and make your killing in the field.'

So, on the one hand, CS faculty are paid too little compared to industry. I'm happy to agree with someone who says I'm underpaid. On the other hand, there are not enough people trying to get faculty positions (two per job opening). Presumably, he wants more applicants and higher pay, not realizing that these are diametrically opposed goals. The reason pay is low is because there are more applicants than positions. If the number of applicants rose to the same level as in the humanities, then pay would fall to the level of that for humanities faculty.

Oh, well, Eric, thanks for playing anyway. We have an assortment of lovely virtual prizes for you to take home.

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Bad news and good news

Well, I guess I wouldn't call it good news; just perhaps the cessation of worsening news. Interest in majoring in computer science among freshmen is down 70% from its peak in 1999 and 2000. That's the bad news. The lack of worse news is that it was the same in 2006 as in 2005, so perhaps it is bottoming out. If you follow the link from the title, you'll see that this is the second such recorded cycle in CS interest. We're lower than the last trough, but from what I can recall of the mid-'80s, the job climate is better now.